2026-07-26 · geopolitics · unverified
Iran says Ukraine attacked one of its commercial vessels in the Caspian Sea, killing a crew member, and has summoned Ukrainian diplomats — an accusation that would, if it holds up, connect two wars that have so far run on separate tracks.
2026-08-16 · geopolitics ·
Over four days, Trump's language on the Strait of Hormuz hardened from 'keep' to 'make US territory' — and Iran answered in kind. The board's own signals show the flashpoint is real, but they don't all rest on the same kind of evidence.
2026-08-23 · geopolitics ·
Trump claims Hormuz as 'new US territory' and announces an economic-isolation plan; Iran warns Gulf neighbours off joining the pressure campaign. That diplomatic exchange is multiply corroborated. Reports of an actual tanker seizure near Hormuz are not.
2026-08-30 · narratives · unverified
Within a 24-hour window, four sources gave three incompatible answers to one question: is the Strait of Hormuz open or closed.
2026-08-30 · osint · unverified
Two outlets report an explosion hit the car of a Russian-installed penal colony official accused of abusing Ukrainian POWs — but it traces back to one Telegram claim.
2026-07-23 · geopolitics ·
A half-hour Lavrov-Rubio meeting in Manila landed on the same day Russia launched 168 drones at Ukraine and Ukraine struck Russia's Voronezh region.
2026-07-24 · geopolitics ·
Amid a confirmed 13th night of US strikes on Iran, the report that Tehran rejected a new ceasefire proposal reaches this dataset only via Russian state media citing the New York Times — not the primary reporting itself.
2026-07-18 · geopolitics · partially corroborated
Four eastern-axis signals entered the board between 04:20 and 07:30 UTC, and not one arrived from a newswire; three Telegram clusters carried them. The two capitals sit far apart on the verification ladder: Kyiv partially corroborated across seven sources, Moscow, ninety minutes earlier, unverified at two.
2026-07-18 · geopolitics · corroborated
Tehran carries 24 distinct outlets against 14 and 9 for the other two critical event signals. One figure in its evidence, about 10,000 people without water, is filed under two entities with two different geographies.
2026-07-22 · geopolitics · unverified
Ukraine's armed forces got a new chief the same day NATO publicly stated the change would not affect support for Kyiv, and Zelenskyy discussed Patriot missile production with the US ambassador to NATO.
2026-07-18 · markets · partially corroborated
The rank-3 narrative is the only one of three on the board not rising, at 143 of 743 articles and +0.3σ, while the two above it run +3.4σ and +2.1σ. Its oldest-evidenced signal, Ras Laffan LNG at 47 mentions, rests on three reports dated 8 to 10 July.
2026-07-19 · geopolitics · partially corroborated
The stated reason for the China-Taiwan axis is "air defence identification zone incursions". Its four evidence items cover Papua New Guinea closing Taiwan's trade office, a territorial claim over Batanes, and a cyclone map. The axis is labelled high severity on a weight of 0.76, the second-lowest of six relations, and Taiwan itself carries zero active signals.
2026-07-19 · geopolitics · partially corroborated
The heaviest tension axis on the board sits at 0.94 against a mean of 0.84 across six relations. Its four supporting items were selected by headline co-occurrence, two of them relay one claim, and three of its four connected events sit in Iran.
2026-07-22 · geopolitics · unverified
On the same day, Washington and Tehran each threatened to strike the other's infrastructure over the Strait of Hormuz, while a second chokepoint, Bab el-Mandeb, is separately flagged high-severity on Houthi shipping bans and rising prediction-market odds of a closure.
2026-07-18 · geopolitics · partially corroborated
Eight of the eighteen signals on today's board sit in the Gulf theatre, and they arrived in a single overnight sequence rather than as separate stories. One of them, Bandar Abbas at 3.7 times the board median, reached us first through Telegram monitoring at 07:10 UTC.
2026-07-18 · markets · corroborated
The composite threat level rose from 0.52 to 0.67 over 24 hours while the dissonance register moved from 0.62 to 0.91 and settled on the verdict SMART MONEY / UNPRICED. That is our two instruments pointing in different directions, and it is the strongest reading on the board today.
2026-07-18 · geopolitics · partially corroborated
Gulf state air defence posture is the second-ranked narrative of the day at 188 articles and +2.1σ, behind Hormuz shipping at 412. Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar all entered the board inside a 95-minute overnight window, through our own burst clustering rather than a wire report.