Situation figures

What money sayspriced by a market

Prediction market. Traders buy contracts that pay out if an event happens by a date; the price is the last traded value between 0 and 1. A price, not a claim and not a measurement: its value is in how it moves against the reporting, not in any single day. Read with the sources above, not instead of them: where a price and the reporting disagree, the disagreement is the finding.

• A market price is what traders last paid for a contract that pays out if the event happens by the date. It is not a forecast issued by anyone, and not a probability measured in the world.
• Every market carries its resolution rule. What counts as a ceasefire or a capture is decided by that wording, not by this page and not by the reporting above.
• Every series carries a baseline, the median of the last 30 days. Changes are shown in percentage points: a move from 2 to 4 is +2 points, not +100 %.
• Where a series on this page speaks to the same question, the market is read against it: the mean of the last 7 days against the mean of the 30 days before, for both. Which direction the price should take if the series is right is this page's assumption, stated at each pairing. A pairing shows that two things moved, not that one moved the other.
• A market on an event by a fixed date loses value as the date approaches and nothing happens. A falling price close to the deadline can be time, not news.
• Thin markets are marked. Below $50,000 of liquidity or above a 3-point spread, a single trade can move the price.
• Trading on Polymarket is not permitted from Germany. This page reads public market data and links to it; it does not broker or recommend anything.

1. Ceasefire agreement by 31 Dec 2026

   13.5¢ on 2026-10-30

   Baseline (30-day median): 16¢ · latest is -2.5 pts against it · 86 days, 2026-08-01 to 2026-10-30

   Liquidity $141k · spread 1¢ · traded last 24 h $41k · market closes 2027-01-01

   • Read against Engagementsclaimed by a belligerentlast 7 days vs the 30 before: series -11% · market -0.3 ptstoo little movement on either side to compare (assumption: if the series is right, the price should move the other way)
   What counts, in the market's own words

   Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

   This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

2. Ceasefire agreement by 30 Jun 2027

   53.5¢ on 2026-10-30

   Baseline (30-day median): 50.5¢ · latest is +3.0 pts against it · 68 days, 2026-08-19 to 2026-10-30

   Liquidity $100k · spread 1¢ · traded last 24 h $884 · market closes 2027-07-01

   • Read against Engagementsclaimed by a belligerentlast 7 days vs the 30 before: series -11% · market +1.4 ptstoo little movement on either side to compare (assumption: if the series is right, the price should move the other way)
   What counts, in the market's own words

   Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?

   This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

3. Russia captures all of Kostiantynivka by 31 Dec 2026thin market

   13.5¢ on 2026-10-30

   Baseline (30-day median): 15.3¢ · latest is -1.7 pts against it · 85 days, 2026-08-01 to 2026-10-30

   Liquidity $28k · spread 2¢ · traded last 24 h $17k · market closes 2027-01-01

   • Read against Settlements claimed capturedclaimed by a belligerentlast 7 days vs the 30 before: series +43% · market -8.7 ptsmoves against the series: a divergence; thin market, read with care (assumption: if the series is right, the price should move the same way)
   • Read against Daily Russian gain (km2)measured from a published maplast 7 days vs the 30 before: series -36% · market -8.7 ptsmoves as the series would suggest; thin market, read with care (assumption: if the series is right, the price should move the same way)
   What counts, in the market's own words

   Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

   This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

4. Ukraine agrees to cede territory before 2027

   5.5¢ on 2026-10-30

   Baseline (30-day median): 6¢ · latest is -0.5 pts against it · 87 days, 2026-08-01 to 2026-10-30

   Liquidity $70k · spread 1¢ · traded last 24 h $1k · market closes 2027-01-01

   No series on this page speaks directly to this question; the price stands on its own.

   What counts, in the market's own words

   Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

   This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

5. Zelenskyy out as president by end of 2026

   7.5¢ on 2026-10-30

   Baseline (30-day median): 6.5¢ · latest is +1.0 pts against it · 84 days, 2026-08-01 to 2026-10-30

   Liquidity $82k · spread 1¢ · traded last 24 h $20k · market closes 2027-01-01

   No series on this page speaks directly to this question; the price stands on its own.

   What counts, in the market's own words

   Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

   This market will resolve to “Yes” if Volodymyr Zelenskyy ceases to be President of Ukraine for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Line scale is fixed at 0 to 100 cents (the faint line marks 50), so a flat line means the market barely moved. Prices from Polymarket's public market data, built 2026-10-30 10:01 UTC.